The New Cold War

Astronaut Tom Jones (four Shuttle flights) has given an illuminating interview concerning the challenges facing NASA and American manned space flight. Beyond the somewhat obvious budgetary problems, Jones discusses a new complication for the space program: Russia.

The way NASA is funded and organized now, the Shuttle program will shut down in 2010, and the new Orion capsule program will begin no earlier than 2012. That leaves a gap of at least two years, likely to stretch out due to budgetary issues, in which the U.S. will have no ability to send Americans (or anyone else) to the International Space Station, nor bring anyone home. The existing plan is to hitch rides on Russian rockets to get up there, and return in Russian Soyuz capsules to get home. Even the lifeboat system on the ISS is Russian-made; the American program was canceled in the early 2000s.

This all seemed like a perfectly workable system, until Russia invaded Georgia and brought a chill to U.S.-Russia relations. Until diplomatic equilibrium is regained, the prospect exists that only Russian will have the keys to the ISS, of which the US funded 80%. One can presume that the current high anxiety between the countries will dissipate by 2010, but the current conflict highlights the surprising vulnerability of U.S. manned space missions.