Debate Roundup, Round 1

It will be rare that I wade into political waters here, but in the last weeks before a monumental presidential election, it is difficult to stay completely dry. So ...

After the most partisan voices cancel each other out (or are thrown out, like the high and low scores in Olympic diving), we are left with what seems to be a general consenus that the debate was basically a draw. Interesting, and perhaps troubling if you are pulling for Bush. The topic on the table last night was terrorism/safety. Even with the profound differences of opinion over the war in Iraq, this figured to be Bush's strongest area (powerful response to terrorism is required, with moral certitude to match) and Kerry's weakest (waffling on support for the armed forces; vague notions of alliances [multi-lateral or bilateral? Ah, it depends]; he didn't have to make the tough decisions). This is the basis for the sharp divide between the camps, and there is probably little Kerry can do to change the minds of those who believe the Administration's military actions were correct because this is, after all, a war. Thus, Bush operates from a position on strength on these issues; notwithstanding the vehemence of the opposition, that opposition is countered by at least an equal amount of support. Bush stands to be much more vulnerable on domestic issues, which have flown under the radar for the most part, and are also more likely to be where the Administration's support erodes even among the party faithful, who aren't going to be pleased with the increased governmental spending we've seen over the last four years. Mixed economic numbers (or at least the impression that the numbers are not positive) don't help, either.

The difficulty in forecasting all of this is that the shrillness of the most partisan supporters on both sides tends to overwhelm a considered debate of issues, particularly those issues that don't pertain to 9/11 and military action. That's why I believe the debates that look beyond the war on terror will be the most revealing.

Of course, I fully anticipate that unless Kerry throws up on his shoes (figuratively or literally), he will be hailed the victor in the next debate by most media outlets because of Bush's perceived weaknesses on domestic concerns. You read it here first.

We should all do ourselves a favor: read the transcripts and track down the facts. Sadly, just because Dan Rather says it's so doesn't mean much any more.