Murphy's Law, Quantified

Thanks to the fine folks at British Gas who commissioned a study on the topic (gee, isn't high taxation great?), the world now has the formula for Murphy's Law (as reported by the New Yorker). Pencils ready? Good:

Let U, C, I, S, and F be integers between 1 and 9, reflecting, respectively, comparative levels of Urgency, Complexity, Importance, Skill and Frequency in a given set of circumstances. A, which stands for Aggravation, must apparently be set to 0.7. The likelihood of Murphy's Law applying under any particular set of circumstances, on a scale of 0 to 8.6 (no, I don't know why) is:

[((U + C + I) x ((10 - S))/20] x A x 1/(1 - sin(F/10)).

According to the New Yorker article, the study was based on a survey of 1,023 mishaps, and found that bad things happen at the most inopportune time at a statisitically significant rate. The shower will turn cold when you're covered with soap rates a 6.0, whereas the likelihood that you will be stuck in traffic when you're already late rates a 7.3. The likelihood that the Sox will screw up? 7.4.

I leave it to you to find new applications for this stunning breakthrough.